全球气候变化对小兴安岭阔叶红松林影响的动态模拟研究

应用林窗模型(Forest Gap Model)及4种大气环流模式(General Girculation Models,GCMs) CO₂加倍"平衡响应"数值试验结果模拟了小兴安岭阔叶红松林对未来气候变化的动态响应过程.结果表明,在美国高达空间研究实验室(Goddard Institute for Space Studies,简记GISS)和美国俄勒冈州立大学(Oregon State University,简记OSU)GCMs预测的CO₂倍增未来气候情景下,与本底生物量(目前气候条件下)相比,阔叶红松林生物量逐渐升高,目前云冷杉阔叶红松林将逐渐向枫桦、紫椴和裂叶榆阔叶红松林演变;但在普林斯顿大学地球流体动力学实验室(Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,Princeton University,简记GFDL)和英国气象局(United Kindom Meteorological Office,简记UKMO)GCMs预测的未来情景下,由于较大幅度的增温,云冷杉红松林将向以蒙古栎、紫椴和裂叶榆为主要树种的阔叶林演变.未来增温速率决定了阔叶红松林未来的演替方向.

Response of broadleaved Pinus koraiensis forests in Xiaoxinganling Mt to global climate change-a dynamic modeling

In this paper,the Forest Gap Model and four General Circulation Models (GCMs) were employed to investigate the dynamic response of broadleaved Pinus koraiensis forests in Xiaoxinganling Mountains of China to global climate change. Under CO₂ doubling which was simulated by the scenarios of Oregon State University and Goddard Institute for Space Studies,the biomass of broadleaved Pinus koraiensis forest increased and the current Picea-Abies-broadleaved Pinus koraiensis forest would gradually develop to Betula costata-Tilia amurensis-Ulmus laciniata-broadleaved Pinus koraiensis forest.Under the scenarios of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University and United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Pinus koraiensis and other coniferous species would be replaced by broadleaved species such as Quercus mongolica,Tilia amurensis and Ulmus laciniata, and the broadleaved Pinus koraiensis forest would change to broadleaved forest,due to the great range increasing temperature by the scenarios.The future warming rate would determine the succession of broadleaved Pinus koraiensis forest.