Assessing re-introductions of the African Wild dog (Lycaon pictus) in the Limpopo Valley Conservancy, South Africa, using the stochastic simulation program VORTEX

The African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) is one of Africa's most endangered species and therefore classified as endangered by IUCN. Earlier distributions included most of Africa but currently the African wild dog only has populations larger than 300 individuals in three countries (Botswana, Tanzania and South Africa). In 1998, a plan was launched in South Africa to manage sub-populations of the African wild dog in several small, geographically isolated, conservation areas. This management program involved the reintroduction of wild dogs into suitable conservation areas and periodic translocations among them. We used the stochastic population simulation model VORTEX to evaluate the Limpopo Valley Conservancy in the north of South Africa, as a possible reintroduction site for African wild dogs. The simulations showed that the size of the initial population released only had a small effect on the population dynamics. However, when individuals were supplemented and harvested over a longer period the probability of persistence increased. Number of females breeding, male mortality, and carrying capacity were key factors in the population dynamics, but according to VORTEX the severity of natural catastrophes had the greatest influence on the extinction risk and inbreeding. We suggest that the reintroduction program may be successful, if areas are properly secured, the dogs are held in a boma before release, wild animals or at least a mix of wild and captive animals are used for the release and the animals are vaccinated against rabies. It is, however, essential to continue monitoring followed by modelling efforts to re-evaluate the success of the reintroduction program.