Predicted genetic gain and realised gain in stand volume of Eucalyptus globulus

Realised gains in stand volume of Eucalyptus globulus Labill. families at 7–9 years were compared with gains predicted at 3.5 years. Gain predictions were based on height, diameter at breast height (DBH), sectional area, and stem volume for 153 full-sib families and 18 commercial checks in five-tree line plots on three West Australian sites. Single-site narrow-sense heritability estimates were 0.12–0.24 for height, 0.08–0.12 for DBH, 0.09–0.13 for sectional area, and 0.14–0.19 for stem volume. Genetic dominance effects were significant (p?<?0.05) in most cases, and the estimated dominance/additive genetic variance ratio was heterogeneous for height and DBH. Stand volume was measured for 93 of the same families and checks in 40-tree block plots on four sites. Heritability of stand volume was 0.25–0.76, with an across-sites estimate of 0.41. Dominance effects were statistically absent at two sites. Estimated region-wide additive genetic correlations between selection traits (in line plots) and stand volume (in block plots) ranged from 0.86 to 0.90. Estimated stand volume gain was 23 % of the mean for the best 12 % of families and 14 % of the mean for the best 24 % of families. Realised gain was under-estimated by predictions based on height, DBH, and sectional area, which had smaller coefficients of additive variation than did stem volume. It is concluded that although BLUP analysis of early-age height and DBH can provide for indirect selection on E. globulus stand volume, analysis of stem volume is required to predict genetic gain at an appropriate scale.