大气环流特征量的水稻白背飞虱发生程度预报模型的研究

根据500hPa大气环流特征量能表征天气形势和控制天气条件的这一特性，利用线性及单调曲线相关与最优化因子相关两种技术对环流特征量因子进行普查、对比分析，发现白背飞虱虫情指标与环流因子之间关系不仅是线性及几种单调曲线的关系，而且还存在非线性、非单调的单峰(谷)型的相关关系，并从中挑选一批与水稻白背飞虱虫情指标相关极其显著、稳定性强、因子间相互独立、可靠的大气环流特征量作为预报因子，在此基础上，建立了江苏省水稻白背飞虱虫情指标预报的环流模型，且还证实了模型中的环流因子与影响白背飞虱迁入、发生发展的气象条件呈显著相关关系，为预报白背飞虱发生程度提供了新的长期因子和新途径。

Atmospheric circulation characteristics (ACC) models for the prediction of the occurrence and development of Sogatella furcifera

According to the fact that the atmospheric circulation characteristics (ACC) of 500hPa can indicate the weather patterns and control the weather conditions,the relationship between the pest index (occurrence,ingoing quantity and the Fifth generation quantity of pest WBPH) and ACC factors was analyzed with the aid of both linearity and optimization correlation techniques.A batch of ACC factors,which correlated excellently and stably with the pest index,was picked out and the prediction model was built up in Jiangsu Province in order to forecast the pest index.At the same time,the significant correlation was also verified between ACC factors and the weather conditions affecting the occurrence and development of pest WBPH, and it provided some new long-term factors and new methods for prediction of the occurrence and development of pest WBPH.