Comment on Barclay and Vreysen: Published dynamic population model for tsetse cannot fit field data |
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Authors: | John W Hargrove Stephen J Torr Glyn A Vale |
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Institution: | (1) SACEMA, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, 19 Jonkershoekweg, Stellenbosch, 7600, South Africa;(2) Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, London, UK;(3) SACEMA, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa |
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Abstract: | The structure, and assumed parameter values, of a recent dynamic population model for tsetse (Diptera: Glossinidae) render
it unable to fit published data on tsetse control programs using odor-baited targets, insecticide-treated cattle and the sterile
insect technique (SIT). The underlying problem is a mismatch between the small size of the mapped cells (1 ha) and the long
time-step, which allows flies to move only once every 5 days, and then only to an adjacent cell. Assumed rates of tsetse dispersal
and killing by odor-baited targets are consequently at least an order of magnitude lower than observed in the field. Suggestions
that Glossina pallidipes could be eradicated more rapidly with SIT, than using hundreds of targets per km2, is contradicted both by the field data and by three other independent modeling studies. |
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Keywords: | Dispersal Dynamic model Glossina SIT Tsetse |
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