天山北坡冬草场牧草产量与气象条件的统计分析

 本文利用紫泥泉种羊场1966—1987年天然草场牧草产量资料及沙湾县气象站资料。采用相关分析、积分回归、逐步回归等统计方法，研究牧草产量的变化趋势，气象条件对牧草产量形成的影响。结果表明：牧草产量随时间上升或下降趋势不显著，4一6月和9、10月是牧草产量形成的关键期，降水量是关键因子，并建立了牧草产量预报模式。

THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS BETWEEN WINTER STEPPE GRASS YIELD IN TIANSAR NORTH SLOPE AND METEOROLOGIC CONDITIONS

On the besis of steppe grass yield during 1966-1987 in Ziniguan stud sheep farm and meteorologic data of shawan station, the grass yield variation and the effect of meteorologic conditions on grass yield were studied by statistical methods of correlation analysis, integral regression and stepwise regression analysis. The results show- ed that the grass yield does not increase or decrease with time, the percipitation is a key factor. April-June and September-October were key periods. Finally, a grass yield predicting model was established.