Regional variation in the age-specific natural fertility curve

This paper examines the question of whether there are consistent regional variations in the level and shape of the age-specific natural fertility curve using data for 45 less-developed countries drawn from a recent US Census Bureau compilation. The 45 countries were grouped into 4 regional categories: sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East and North Africa; South and Southeast Asia; and Latin America. In general there do not appear to be variations. A consistent age pattern of natural fertility emerges, once the rates have been normalized and an adjustment made for age at 1st exposure to the risk of pregnancy. The results strongly support Coale's original natural fertility paradigm. The differences in the absolute fertility rates among the 4 regions correspond to the differences in proportion of females aged 15 and over who are currently married. The differences among 3 of the regions are relatively small whereas sub-Saharan Africa's proportion currently married is significantly higher.