Body mass and correlated ecological variables in the North American muskrat lineage: evolutionary rates and the tradeoff of large size and speciation potential

This study tracks evolutionary change in body mass (W) and correlated ecological variables over the 3.75 million year history of the North American muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus). A new model is presented suggesting muskrat body mass has been in equilibrium for most of its history. Four pulses of pronounced size increase are correlated with glacial dynamics and volcanic events. Ranges of evolutionary rates in darwins and a new metric based on percent change in W document episodic size change. Proportional size change is independent of interval length, with a background range attributed to natural selection ≤25–30%. In increasing body mass by a factor of ten to about 1 kg mass-specific metabolism was halved, home range quadrupled, population density decreased fourfold, and average biomass more than doubled. Estimates of species diversity in ancient cotton rats (Sigmodon) and muskrats are calculated from a function derived from the correlation of numbers of North American rodent species and mean W. The phyletic mode of muskrat body size increase is explained as a combination of large body size reducing speciation coupled with an aquatic lifestyle. To the ecological consequences of large size in evolving clades (Cope’s rule) we can now add reduced speciation potential.