Efficiency of Batteries of Tests for Estimating Potential Mutagenicity of Chemicals

A new method for assessing the efficiency of batteries of arbitrary numbers of tests is proposed. The posterior probability of the mutagenicity of the substances studied has been estimated using discriminant analysis. The results of tests in each test system has been presented as the probability to obtain a positive result in the given test system. This has made it possible to decrease the sample size as the number of tests in the battery increased. As a result, prognostic power may be assessed even if the matrix of results is incomplete. This approach has been used to estimate the weights of evidence for mutagenic activities of 105 chemical compounds studied by means of a battery of four tests: Ames's test, the test for chromosome aberrations in vitro, the test for cytogenetic defects in vivo, and the test for dominant lethal mutations in rodents.