| Abstract: | Most existing records of detection processes for breast cancer are in the form of cancer registries or are results of large clinical trials. Statistical modelling can be applied to these data sets to study various properties of breast cancer. In particular we estimate the probability of cure given the size of the tumour at detection, the distribution of tumour growth rates and the distribution of the size of the tumour at detection. There has been a strong recent interest in early detection methods. These consist of giving regular examinations, called screenings. The effect of screening design on the probability of cure is considered. The results of an existing screening trial are used to derive another estimate of the tumour growth rate distribution which agrees well both with our earlier estimate and the most widely used empirical estimate in the literature. The calculation of lead time, which is the time gained in detection when screenings are given, is also discussed. |
