Association between estimated glomerular filtration rate at initiation of dialysis and mortality

Background

Recent studies have reported a trend toward earlier initiation of dialysis (i.e., at higher levels of glomerular filtration rate) and an association between early initiation and increased risk of death. We examined trends in initiation of hemodialysis within Canada and compared the risk of death between patients with early and late initiation of dialysis.

Methods

The analytic cohort consisted of 25 910 patients at least 18 years of age who initiated hemodialysis, as identified from the Canadian Organ Replacement Register (2001–2007). We defined the initiation of dialysis as early if the estimated glomerular filtration rate was greater than 10.5 mL/min per 1.73 m². We fitted time-dependent proportional-hazards Cox models to compare the risk of death between patients with early and late initiation of dialysis.

Results

Between 2001 and 2007, mean estimated glomerular filtration rate at initiation of dialysis increased from 9.3 (standard deviation [SD] 5.2) to 10.2 (SD 7.1) (p < 0.001), and the proportion of early starts rose from 28% (95% confidence interval [CI] 27%–30%) to 36% (95% CI 34%–37%). Mean glomerular filtration rate was 15.5 (SD 7.7) mL/min per 1.73 m² among those with early initiation and 7.1 (SD 2.0) mL/min per 1.73 m² among those with late initiation. The unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for mortality with early relative to late initiation was 1.48 (95% CI 1.43–1.54). The HR decreased to 1.18 (95% CI 1.13–1.23) after adjustment for demographic characteristics, serum albumin, primary cause of end-stage renal disease, vascular access type, comorbidities, late referral and transplant status. The mortality differential between early and late initiation per 1000 patient-years narrowed after one year of follow-up, but never crossed and began widening again after 24 months of follow-up. The differences were significant at 6, 12, 30 and 36 months.

Interpretation

In Canada, dialysis is being initiated at increasingly higher levels of glomerular filtration rate. A higher glomerular filtration rate at initiation of dialysis is associated with an increased risk of death that is not fully explained by differences in baseline characteristics.Examination of dialysis registry data, both in the United States and Europe, has shown that this procedure is being initiated for patients with increasingly higher levels of estimated glomerular filtration rate.^1–4 Although the indications for dialysis are often not recorded or not accessible for data-gathering, a large international survey of physicians in 2000 revealed that the two leading determinants of early initiation were uremic signs and symptoms (38%) and residual kidney function (32%), with 90% of respondents indicating that initiating dialysis earlier (by 6–12 months) would give some major advantage in terms of outcomes.⁵ The timing of initiation of dialysis is based on clinical judgment and the interpretation of signs, symptoms and laboratory test results, with possibly greater emphasis recently on estimated glomerular filtration rate following the introduction of national guidelines.^6,7 These guidelines were influenced by studies conducted in the 1980s and 1990s, which suggested that late initiation was potentially harmful.^8,9 In 2006, the US National Kidney Foundation suggested that initiation of dialysis be considered before stage 5 chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 15 mL/min per 1.73 m²) if symptoms were related to both comorbidities and level of residual kidney function.¹⁰ The guidelines were based on existing observational information and never advocated initiating dialysis at a specific value of estimated glomerular filtration rate. However, studies conducted since 2001 have shown no survival benefit with initiation of hemodialysis at higher values of estimated glomerular filtration rate.^4,11–14Using data from the Canadian Organ Replacement Register, we examined trends in the timing of hemodialysis initiation between 2001 and 2007, characterized patients with early and late initiation of dialysis and compared the risk of death between these groups over time while controlling for baseline imbalances. In this article, we discuss the confounding effects of selection, survivor, misclassification, lead-time and indication bias.