黄土高原草地畜牧业产业形成与发展的牧草生产力基础

在黄土高原197个区县土地利用方式重新规划的基础上，对黄土高原畜牧业产业形成与发展的牧草生产潜力进行了分析预测。结果表明：规划的牧、林、农、果用地占生产用地的比例分别是草地44％、林地22％、基本农田20％、果园14％；197个区县草地牧草生产、作物秸秆、草田轮作和果园种草预测的总牧草饲料生产潜力达104881028t／a(其中，草地牧草生产潜力约占45％，达47196462．7t／a)，可载畜104881028个羊单位／a(其中草地可载畜47196462．7个羊单位／a)。按1999年不变价格计算，黄土高原预测畜牧业总产值将达到5244051万元RMB／a，是1999年畜牧业总产值的5．3倍，超过1999年黄土高原农业总产值14％。农业人口人均预测畜牧业产值大于l000元的区县占59％；小于l000元的区县占41％。此外，预测的农业总产值将达到l147．2234亿元RMB／a，其中畜牧业、果业、林业和农业产值占农业总产值的比重分别是46％、27％、14％和13％。随着畜牧业产业链的逐步建立与完善，产业发展布局的日趋合理，黄土高原畜牧业生产总值将有较大幅度的提高，黄土高原生态环境将有进一步的改善。黄土高原草地畜牧业蕴藏着巨大的发展潜力，有望成为黄土高原优化的生产一生态新产业带建制中的支柱产业。

Supporting of Potential Forage Production to the Herbivore-based Pastoral Farming Industry on the Loess Plateau

For the purpose of contributing to the establishment of optimized eco-productive paradigm,a new layout of land use of the Loess Plateau was carried out and the associated forage potential wasestimated. Results indicated that the percentages of the area of grassland, woodland, basic farmland andorchard to the total productive land area were 44%, 22%, 20% and 14% respectively according to this newland use scenario. Based on the datasets of 197 counties in the Loess Plateau, the estimated foragepotential would amount to 104 881 028 ton/a (hay), which can raise 104 881 028 productivity sheep unit/a. According to the unchanged price in 1999, pastoral gross product value would amount to 52 440.51million yuan RMB/a, which is as much as 5.3 times of that in 1999 and exceeds the agricultural grossproduct in 1999 by 14%. In addition, there are ca. 59% of counties whose mean pastoral product value perperson would be more than 1 000 yuan RMB/a, while ca. 41% of counties whose mean pastoral productvalue per person would be less than 1 000 yuan RMB/a. On the other hand, the estimated agriculturalgross product on the Loess Plateau would amount to 11 472 2.34 million yuan RMB/a and ca. 46% of thetotal would come from pastoral industry, 27% from orchid industry, 14% from forestry and 13% from farmland.From the perspective both ecologically and economically, this paper holds that the herbi-vore-based pas-toral industry is a promising industry bolstering the ecological improvement and economical developmenton the Loess Plateau.