Statistical modelling and prediction of pollutants in the urban atmosphere of Salamanca, Spain |
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Authors: | C Panero F de Pablo J M Sánchez C Tomás |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Atmospheric Physics, School of Sciences, University of Salamanca, 37008 Salamanca, Spain, ES |
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Abstract: | The primary aim of the present work is to describe and analyze the temporal trends of concurrent hourly observations and
its daily averaged series of the pollutants CO, NO2, NO and SO2 in the urban area of the City of Salamanca (environmental survey station SA001) for the period between 1 December 1993 and
30 November 1994.
Using daily series corresponding to different meteorological variables recorded at the same site for the same period (wind
direction, relative humidity, pressure, radiation, temperature and wind speed), linear regression techniques are used to study
the relationships of these variables with each of the polluntants on both an individual and multivariate basis. The results
obtained explain 40% of the variance of the series for NO2 and 66% in the case of SO2.
Finally, in the modelling phase it was observed that the series of polluntants themselves have sufficient ’’information’’
to enable, by means of autoregressive and integrated moving average techniques (A.R.I.M.A.), the determination of future pollution.
Once predicted, these were contrasted with the measured or observed values to check the goodness of the model.
Received: 9 December 1996 / Accepted: 24 January 1997 |
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Keywords: | Urban atmosphere Pollutants Multiple linear regression ARIMA Salamanca (Spain) |
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