长三角县域国土空间开发适宜性评价方法研究——以长兴县为例

长三角一体化已上升为国家战略，该地区的自然社会经济要素相互关联极为密切，地区间相互影响显著。而作为长三角行政区划的基本单元，县域的可持续发展对于该地区的一体化协调发展具有重要的基础支撑作用。本文以浙江省长兴县为例，基于用地发展潜力和生态约束研究，构建了一套通用、快速的国土空间开发适宜性评价方法体系，基于空间可达性分析评价县域土地开发潜力，基于最小累积阻力模型评价土地生态约束。利用潜力—约束模型评价长兴县土地开发潜力和生态约束，得出长兴县土地适宜开发建设区域的面积约358 km2，占全域总面积的24.6%，呈中部聚集、四周分散的格局。基于研究结果，提出未来发展建议，建立健全相关制度保护耕地，强化国土空间管制保护生态空间，开展生态修复保障生态系统健康，多手段预防自然灾害，以期优化长兴县未来国土空间开发布局，指导县域国土空间规划。

The method of territorial spatial development suitability evaluation in the Yangtze River Delta: a case study of Changxing County

The integration of the Yangtze River Delta has become a national strategy. The natural, social and economic factors are closely related and the regional interaction is significant in the Yangtze River Delta. As the basic unit of the administrative division of the Yangtze River Delta, the sustainable development of the county plays an important role in the integration and coordinated development of the region. This study took the Changxing County in Zhejiang Province as an example. Combining the development potential with ecological constraints, a universal index system and evaluation method was constructed for the evaluation of territorial spatial development suitability. The spatial accessibility analysis method was used to evaluate the development potential, and the land of ecological constraint was evaluated based on the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model. The suitable land for development in Changxing was identified based on the potential-constraint model, which was 358 km2 and covered 24.6% of the total area, mainly distributed as a middle-clustered and around-scattered pattern. Based on the results, some suggestions for the future development were put forward. In order to optimize the layout of territorial spatial development of Changxing in future and guide the territorial spatial plan in county scale, the county needs to establish and improve relevant systems to protect arable land, strengthen territorial space control to protect ecological space, carry out ecological restoration to ensure ecosystem health, and prevent natural disasters by various means.