Global climate change will increase the abundance of symbiotic nitrogen‐fixing trees in much of North America

Symbiotic nitrogen (N)‐fixing trees can drive N and carbon cycling and thus are critical components of future climate projections. Despite detailed understanding of how climate influences N‐fixation enzyme activity and physiology, comparatively little is known about how climate influences N‐fixing tree abundance. Here, we used forest inventory data from the USA and Mexico (>125,000 plots) along with climate data to address two questions: (1) How does the abundance distribution of N‐fixing trees (rhizobial, actinorhizal, and both types together) vary with mean annual temperature (MAT) and precipitation (MAP)? (2) How will changing climate shift the abundance distribution of N‐fixing trees? We found that rhizobial N‐fixing trees were nearly absent below 15°C MAT, but above 15°C MAT, they increased in abundance as temperature rose. We found no evidence for a hump‐shaped response to temperature throughout the range of our data. Rhizobial trees were more abundant in dry than in wet ecosystems. By contrast, actinorhizal trees peaked in abundance at 5–10°C MAT and were least abundant in areas with intermediate precipitation. Next, we used a climate‐envelope approach to project how N‐fixing tree relative abundance might change in the future. The climate‐envelope projection showed that rhizobial N‐fixing trees will likely become more abundant in many areas by 2080, particularly in the southern USA and western Mexico, due primarily to rising temperatures. Projections for actinorhizal N‐fixing trees were more nuanced due to their nonmonotonic dependence on temperature and precipitation. Overall, the dominant trend is that warming will increase N‐fixing tree abundance in much of the USA and Mexico, with large increases up to 40° North latitude. The quantitative link we provide between climate and N‐fixing tree abundance can help improve the representation of symbiotic N fixation in Earth System Models.