Modelling the population dynamics of Penilia avirostris (Branchiopoda,Ctenopoda) in a tropical bay

An ecological model for the simulation of the population dynamics of the cladoceran Penilia avirostris in Guanabara Bay, a tropical Brazilian bay, was developed. The simulated curve gave a good fit, in time and intensity, to the exponential increase and decrease in densities of P. avirostris during the March-July 2000 period. The densities of embryos, young individuals, males, and parthenogenic and gamogenic females were the state variables. Parameters of the model were varied within the range of field and literature data. Predation was considered as the main factor affecting mortality, the death rate being a function of the density of chaetognaths, the dominant invertebrate predator in Guanabara Bay. Input of resting eggs into the model as a “seed” source of embryos provided a good fit to the exponential increase of Penilia density. The observed sharp decreases and collapses of the population could not be explained by mortality or a shift from parthenogenic to gamogenic reproduction only. To provide an explanation, it was necessary to introduce an output forcing function, which probably represents physical factors such as water mass exchanges by tide- and wind-driven currents.