气候变化背景下野生动物脆弱性评估方法研究进展

脆弱性评估是研究气候变化影响野生动物的重要内容,识别野生动物脆弱性,是适应和减缓气候变化影响的关键和基础。开展气候变化背景下野生动物的脆弱性评估工作,目的是为了确定易受气候变化影响的物种和明确导致物种脆弱性的因素,其评估结果有助于人类认识气候变化对野生动物的影响,为野生动物适应气候变化保护对策的制定提供科学依据。对野生动物而言(物种),脆弱性是物种受气候变化影响的程度,包括暴露度、敏感性和适应能力三大要素。其中,暴露度是由气候变化引起的外在因素,如温度、降雨量、极值天气等;敏感性是受物种自身因素影响,如种间关系、耐受性等;适应能力是物种通过自身调整来减小气候变化带来的影响,如迁移或扩散到适宜生境的能力、塑性反应和进化反应等。对近期有关气候变化背景下野生动物脆弱性评估方法予以综述,比较每种评估方法所选取指标的差异,总结在脆弱性评估中遇到的不确定性指标的处理方法,以及脆弱性评估结果在野生动物适应气候变化对策中的应用。通过总结野生动物脆弱性评估方法,以期为气候变化背景下评估我国野生动物资源的脆弱性提供参考方法。

Overview of methods for assessing the vulnerability of wildlife to climate change

In order to mitigate the widely recognized and harmful impacts of climate change on wildlife, it is imperative to assess the vulnerability of species to future climate change and to adopt adaptive conservation strategies. Assessments of climate change vulnerability make two essential contributions to adaptation planning, including the identification of species that are likely to be most strongly affected by climate change and the identification of underlying mechanisms that make these species vulnerable. Here, we define climate change vulnerability as the extent to which wildlife species will be affected by climate change, considering exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, which we respectively define as extrinsic factors that will result from climate change (e.g., increasing temperature and precipitation and extreme weather), intrinsic species traits (e.g., biotic interactions and physiological tolerances), and the degree to which species are able to reduce or avoid the adverse effects of climate change through dispersal and plastic ecological or evolutionary responses. In this review, we describe the different methods used for assessing the vulnerability of wildlife to climate change, as well as the corresponding data requirements, and then address the uncertainty factors in each method and describe the importance of vulnerability assessments in designing adaptive climate change-related conservation strategies. The purpose of this review is to provide a reference for assessing the vulnerability of wildlife to climate change in China.