1985-2015年向海沼泽湿地斑块稳定性的空间变化

湿地稳定性对湿地生态系统的结构和功能起着至关重要的作用。为了研究湿地斑块稳定性的区域分异规律及时空动态变化，采用专家打分法，在斑块尺度上构建了湿地斑块稳定性模型，并以遥感影像为数据源，对1985-2015年的向海自然保护区及其周边地区沼泽湿地斑块稳定性的时空变化进行研究。结果表明：1985年与2015年的沼泽湿地斑块稳定性呈现中部最强、东部最弱、西部较强的特点；1985-2015年间研究区沼泽湿地斑块稳定性总体向东偏移，空间集聚性增强；1985-2015年研究区沼泽湿地斑块稳定性呈上升趋势，空间结构性变弱，离散程度增强；1985年沼泽湿地斑块稳定性由核心区向外逐渐递减，而2015年实验区的沼泽湿地斑块稳定性大于缓冲区。研究结果向海自然保护区及其周边地区沼泽湿地的规划与管理提供合理性建议。

The spatial variation in the patch stability of marshes in Xianghai between 1985 and 2015

Wetland stability plays a vital role in the structure and functions of wetland ecosystems. In order to study the regional change in wetland patch stability and the space-time dynamic of the marshes, an expert evaluation method was used to construct a wetland patch stability model at the patch scale. Sensing image data were collected to investigate the space-time changes to marshes patch stability in the Xianghai National Nature Reserve and its surrounding area between 1985 and 2015. The results suggested that between 1985 and 2015, the marsh patch stability characteristics were strongest in the central areas, weakest in the east, and relatively stronger in the west. Marsh patch stability was skewed towards the east, and the spatial centralization increased in the study area between 1985 and 2015. Furthermore, marsh patch stability gradually increased, its spatial structure weakened, and measures of dispersion increased between 1985 and 2015. Marsh patch stability has gradually decreased from the core area to the periphery since 1985 and marsh patch stability was greater in the experimental zone than in the buffer zones in 2015. This study provides practical suggestions that will improve marsh planning and management in the Xianghai National Nature Reserve and its surrounding area.