禁牧政策下宁夏盐池县农户适应策略及其影响因素

禁牧政策下农户的适应策略是农户为了应对外界干预而做出的各种适应性改变,生计变化是其中最重要的部分。通过实地调查获得研究数据,对比分析禁牧初期和禁牧10a农户生计模式、养殖及种植方面的变化,并以农户的生计资本作为自变量,运用有序多分类和二项的Logistic回归模型分析农户适应策略(农户生计多样性、养殖规模及养殖方式)变化的影响因素。研究得出:1与禁牧初期相比,当前农户的适应策略主要表现为农户生计模式具有初步非农化倾向,生计多样性增加,大部分农户养殖规模减小或不变,农户生产结构有所调整,粮食作物种植面积增加,而经济作物种植面积减小,单只羊的养殖成本增加。2农户生计资本水平对其适应策略具有重要影响,农户生计多样性变化的主要影响因素有人力资本、金融资本和社会资本;影响农户养殖规模变化的主要有自然资本、物质资本、金融资本和社会资本,而影响农户养殖模式选择的主要是物质资本和金融资本因素。

Adaptive strategy of peasant households and its influencing factors under the grazing prohibition policy in yanchi county, ningxia hui autonomous region

Grassland ecosystems play an important role in human society, providing a large number of livestock products and plant resources for economic development, and also the basic production and living materials to farmers and herdsmen. Moreover, grassland ecosystems provide many ecosystem service functions. Accordingly, grassland ecosystems have both economic and ecological value, and are recognized as strategic economic, social, and ecological resources. However, grassland ecosystems have been degraded as a consequence of climate change and human activities. Located in the existing farming-pastoral transitional zone, Yanchi County implemented a grazing prohibition policy on November 1, 2002 to deal with grassland ecosystem destruction. Through 10 years of efforts, the grazing prohibition policy has achieved a certain effect. Peasant households are the main participants in grazing prohibition policy; their adaptive behavior affects not only living standards but also the performance of the policy and the sustainable development of the social economy. The adaptive strategies of peasant households include all types of adaptive change, particularly the change of livelihood to deal with the interventions. We obtained data from field investigations, and compared the change in household livelihood and the grazing and cultivation situation at the beginning of the grazing prohibition policy and 10 years after its implementation. The peasant household capital was designed as an independent variable, and Logistic regression models was used to identify the factors that affected the changes in peasant households'' adaptive strategies, including the change in peasant households'' livelihood diversity, scale of grazing, and grazing methods. The results showed the following. (1) The current household adaptive strategies include a preliminary non-agriculture tendency of their livelihood, an increase in livelihood diversity, and a decrease in the farming scale. The adjustment of peasant household production structure includes an increase in food crop planting area, a decrease in the economic crop planting area, and an increase in grazing cost. (2) Peasant household livelihood capital level has important effects on their adaptive strategies:the main factors that influence farmers'' livelihood diversity are human capital, financial capital, and social capital; The factors influencing the change in farming scale mainly include natural capital, physical capital, financial capital, and social capital, and the factors affecting breeding method selection are physical capital and financial capital.