基于logistic模型的中国自然保护区增长动态分析

中国自然保护区建设已由数量扩张型进入质量效益型的新阶段,运用自然保护区统计年鉴数据,基于logistic模型,借助R语言,对自然保护区发展上限进行了估算。同时,运用高等数据曲线曲率求导方法,对发展阶段进行划分,对持续时长和增长速度进行了测算。结果表明:①面积理论饱和值为15470.00万hm²;②将自然保护区发展历程分为缓慢起步期(1956—1989年)、快速发展期(1990—2008年)和稳定完善期(2009—至今);③目前则处于稳定完善期,面积已渐近饱和值,数量仍在小幅度增加。希望本研究结果能为自然保护区主管部门制定管理政策、规划以及整合组建以国家公园为主体的自然保护地体系提供参考。

Dynamic analysis of the natural reserves growth based on logistic model in China

The development of nature reserves in China has entered a new stage of quality-benefit model from the quantitative expansion. Based on the logistic model and R language, this paper estimated the upper limit of development of nature reserves by using the statistical yearbook data of nature reserves. At the same time, the curvature derivative method of high data curve was used to divide the development stage, and to measure the continuous growth and growth rate. The results show that:(1) the theoretical saturation value of the area was 15470.00 million hectares. (2) The development process of the nature reserves was divided into slow beginning period (1956-1989), rapid development period (1990-2008), and stable improvement period (2009-now). (3) At present, it is in a stable and improvement period. The area of nature reserves has been gradually saturated. The number is still increasing slightly. We hoped that our results of this study can provide a reference for the competent authorities of nature reserves to formulate management policies and plans and integrate the establishment of a nature reserve system with the national parks as the main body.