基于Logistic模型的煤电产业共生系统稳定性分析

煤电产业共生系统中煤炭企业与电力企业之间的关系与生物种群中物种之间的互利共生关系存在一定的相似性,煤电产业共生系统要实现自身的完善与稳定发展,其内部互利共生关系的企业间必须达到利益上的均衡。借鉴自然界生物种群竞争与合作的共生演化理论与思想,用企业产值来反映煤电产业共生系统演化过程的外生变量,建立了企业产值增长的竞争与合作型Logistic模型。在厘清稳定点的条件之后,通过协同演化博弈分析对煤电产业共生系统演化过程进行了模拟。研究结果表明:(1)煤电产业共生系统的稳定不仅取决于煤电企业进入对方造成的分散力与集聚力之间的较量,还取决于各自在系统内外所取得效益的比较;不仅取决于核心企业的决定性作用,还很大程度上取决于相关企业为进入系统所做出的努力和采取的措施,同时,还与企业的初始产值、竞争力、合作性以及产值增长率等有着密切的关系;(2)煤电产业共生系统要实现长期可持续发展,必须保持产业共生系统互补的共生系统结构以及较高的生产活力。

A logistic model for the stability of a symbiotic system for the coal and electricity industries

There are similarities between a symbiotic system for coal and electricity enterprises and the mutually beneficial, symbiotic relationships between biological populations and species. To ensure stable development and improvements over time, a symbiotic system for the coal and electricity industries should balance the interests of mutually beneficial and symbiotic enterprises. This study considered the evolutionary theory regarding symbiosis and the notions of competition and cooperation between species, and used the output of each enterprise in the coal industry as exogenous variables to examine the evolution of the symbiotic system in a similar framework. A logistic model describing the competition and cooperation between enterprises in terms of growth was constructed. After the conditions for stability were clarified, the evolution of a symbiotic system for the coal and electricity industries was simulated by a game theoretic coevolution analysis. Several conclusions were drawn from the analysis. (1) The stability of a symbiotic system for the coal and electricity industries depends not only on dispersion and agglomeration forces, but also on the comparative benefits from inside and outside of the system. To a large extent, this stability depends not only on the decisive role played by the core businesses, but also on the efforts and measures taken by related companies for entrance into the system. In addition, stability is strongly related to the initial output of each enterprise, competitiveness, cooperation, output growth, etc. (2) To achieve long-term sustainable development, a symbiotic system for the coal and electricity industries must maintain complementary architectures and higher production activity.