长三角区域经济社会与生态环境协调发展时空特征及相关性

地区间发展不平衡是制约区域协调发展战略落实的重要障碍之一。基于2010—2019年长三角区域41个地级市的面板数据,构建了包含经济发展、科教事业、基础建设、人民生活、资源环境5个子系统的区域协调发展指标体系,借助GeoDa和ArcGIS软件,运用区域协调发展测度模型、探索性空间数据分析等方法,探讨区域协调发展的时空演变特征及各要素内部相关性。结果表明: 从区域发展的角度来看,长三角区域的发展协调性逐年增强。2010—2019年,上海市、苏州市等地区的经济发展、科教事业水平领先于其他城市,皖西北地区、舟山市、黄山市发展协调程度较弱。从空间自相关的角度来看,长三角区域各子系统平均自相关程度依次为人民生活＞经济发展＞资源环境＞科教事业＞基础建设。其中,经济发展与科教事业的全局莫兰指数呈下降趋势,科教事业没有呈现出显著相关性,基础建设的莫兰指数基本处于较低水平,不同年份浮动程度较大,人民生活在空间上具有明显的高-高与低-低集聚特征,资源环境的全局莫兰指数呈现“V”字形分布。经济建设和科教事业是与区域协调发展相关性最强的两种因素。

Temporal and spatial characteristics and correlation of the coordinated development of economy,society and ecological environment in the Yangtze River Delta,China

The imbalance of regional development is one of the important obstacles for the implementation of regio-nal coordinated development strategy. Based on the panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2019, the regional coordinated development index system with five subsystems was constructed, including economic development, science and education, infrastructure, people’s life, and resource and environment. With the help of GeoDa and ArcGIS software, we used measurement model of regional coordinated development and method of exploratory spatial data analysis to analyze the temporal and spatial variations and internal correlation of various elements of regional coordinated development in the Yangtze River Delta. The results showed that, from the perspective of regional development, the coordination of regional development in the Yangtze River Delta had increased annually from 2010 to 2019. The level of economic development and science and education in Shanghai and Suzhou was ahead of other cities, while the development coordination of Northwest Anhui, Zhoushan and Huangshan was weaker than other cities. The order of average autocorrelation degree of each subsystem from high to low in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2019 was people’s life, economic development, resource and environment, science and education, and infrastructure. Among them, the global Moran’s index (Moran I) of economic development and science and education subsystem showed a downward trend, while science and education subsystem showed no significant correlation. Moran I of infrastructure subsystem was mostly at the low level with a great fluctuation in different years. People’s life had obvious spatial characteristics of high-high and low-low agglomeration. The global Moran I of resources and environment showed a pattern of “V” distribution. Economic development and science and education were the two factors most closely related to regional coordinated development.