Multi-criteria dynamic decision under uncertainty: A stochastic viability analysis and an application to sustainable fishery management |
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Authors: | M De Lara V Martinet |
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Institution: | a Université Paris-Est, CERMICS, 6-8 Avenue Blaise Pascal, 77455 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2, France b Economie Publique, UMR INRA-AgroParis Tech., 78850 Thiverval-Grignon, France |
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Abstract: | Managing natural resources in a sustainable way is a hard task, due to uncertainties, dynamics and conflicting objectives (ecological, social, and economical). We propose a stochastic viability approach to address such problems. We consider a discrete-time control dynamical model with uncertainties, representing a bioeconomic system. The sustainability of this system is described by a set of constraints, defined in practice by indicators - namely, state, control and uncertainty functions - together with thresholds. This approach aims at identifying decision rules such that a set of constraints, representing various objectives, is respected with maximal probability. Under appropriate monotonicity properties of dynamics and constraints, having economic and biological content, we characterize an optimal feedback. The connection is made between this approach and the so-called Management Strategy Evaluation for fisheries. A numerical application to sustainable management of Bay of Biscay nephrops-hakes mixed fishery is given. |
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Keywords: | Multi-criteria Control Stochastic Viability Sustainable management Fisheries |
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