Projected Polar Bear Sea Ice Habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago |
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| Authors: | Stephen G. Hamilton Laura Castro de la Guardia Andrew E. Derocher Vicki Sahanatien Bruno Tremblay David Huard |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2E9 Canada.; 2. Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2E9 Canada.; 3. World Wildlife Fund Canada, PO Box 1750, Iqaluit, NU, X0A 0H0 Canada.; 4. Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Room 823, Burnside Hall 805 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, QC H3A 0B9 Canada.; 5. David Huard Solutions, Québec, G1W 4G8 Canada.; Laval University, Canada, |
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| Abstract: | BackgroundSea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 – 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling.Principal FindingsShifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2–5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands.Conclusions/SignificanceUnder business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100. |
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