承载力评估在区域人口配置中的应用:以常州为例

从城市生态系统承载力的空间差异性出发,集成GIS空间评价技术和系统动力学(SD)模型,确定城市区域适度总人口规模和各分区人口数量,提出人口分区定量配置新思路和技术集成方法,并将该方法应用于300万人口城市——常州.结果表明:通过构建常州市区人口、经济、土地与环境的系统动力学模型和多情景模拟分析,在同时满足城市经济发展与环境保护需求下,常州市区远景(2050年)总人口约400万;基于城市承载力空间差异评价进行常州市区总人口的空间配置,将形成240万人的主城及5个15 ～ 40万人新城的空间格局,研究结果可为国土开发管理中人口与经济的空间分配提供科学依据.

Application of carrying capacity assessment in spatial allocation of regional population: a case of Changzhou City of East China

Based on the spatial differences in urban ecosystem carrying capacity, and by using geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis technology and system dynamics (SD) model, this paper ascertained the moderate population size in urban area and its subareas, and presented an alternative method for quantitatively allocate the population. This method was applied in Changzhou, a city with more than three million populations in East China. A SD model consisted of population, economy, land and environment modules for the city was established and scenario analysis was made. The results showed that under the requirements of satisfying both economic development and environmental protection, the total population in the city in 2050 would reach nearly 4 million, and according to the differences in the urban ecosystem carrying capacity, a spatial allocation pattern of 2.4 million populations in main city and 150000-400000 populations in each of 5 new towns was proposed. This study could provide scientific support for the spatial allocation of population and economy in country land development and management.