Predicting impacts of climate change on habitat connectivity of Kalopanax septemlobus in South Korea |
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| Institution: | 1. Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, Seoul, 151-742, South Korea;2. Department of Biological Sciences, Institute for Environmental Science and Policy, University of Illinois at Chicago, M/C 066, 845 W. Taylor Street, SES 3346, Chicago, IL, USA;3. Forest Ecology Division, National Institute of Forest Science, Seoul, 151-742, South Korea;1. Graduate School of Asian and African Area Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8502, Japan;2. Graduate School of Letters, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan;1. Marine Scotland Science Freshwater Fisheries Laboratory, Faskally, Pitlochry, Perthshire PH16 5LB, Scotland, UK;2. Marine Scotland Science Marine Laboratory, PO Box 101, 375, Victoria Road, Aberdeen AB11 9DB, Scotland, UK;1. French National Museum of Natural History, Centre d''Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO UMR7204), MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, 55 rue Buffon, 75005 Paris, France;2. EDF R&D, EPI Department, Site des Renardières, Ecuelles 77818 Moret sur Loing cedex, France;1. Departamento de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto, Agencia Postal N°3, 5800 Río Cuarto, Córdoba, Argentina;2. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Avda. Rivadavia 1917, CP C1033AAJ, Argentina;1. Laboratory and Museum of Evolutionary Ecology, Department of Ecology, Faculty of Humanities and Natural Sciences, University of Pre?ov, 17. novembra 1, 081 16 Pre?ov, Slovakia;2. Department of Avian Biology & Ecology, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Umultowska 89, 61-614 Poznań, Poland;3. Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Zielona Góra, Szafrana 1, 65-516 Zielona Góra, Poland |
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| Abstract: | Understanding the drivers of habitat distribution patterns and assessing habitat connectivity are crucial for conservation in the face of climate change. In this study, we examined a sparsely distributed tree species, Kalopanax septemlobus (Araliaceae), which has been heavily disturbed by human use in temperate forests of South Korea. We used maximum entropy distribution modeling (MaxEnt) to identify the climatic and topographic factors driving the distribution of the species. Then, we constructed habitat models under current and projected climate conditions for the year 2050 and evaluated changes in the extent and connectivity of the K. septemlobus habitat. Annual mean temperature and terrain slope were the two most important predictors of species distribution. Our models predicted the range shift of K. septemlobus toward higher elevations under medium-low and high emissions scenarios for 2050, with dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (51% and 85%, respectively). In addition, connectivity analysis indicated that climate change is expected to reduce future levels of habitat connectivity. Even under the Representative Construction Pathway (RCP) 4.5 medium-low warming scenario, the projected climate conditions will decrease habitat connectivity by 78%. Overall, suitable habitats for K. septemlobus populations will likely become more isolated depending on the severity of global warming. The approach presented here can be used to efficiently assess species and habitat vulnerability to climate change. |
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| Keywords: | Castor aralia Graph theory Habitat suitability Maximum entropy modeling Probability of connectivity |
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