Climatic responses of Pinus pseudostrobus and Abies religiosa in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve,Central Mexico

Understanding the effects of climate on the growth of trees is important to project the response of forests to climate change. Dendrochronological analysis offers a “proxy” source for the effects of climatic variation on tree growth at different spatial and temporal scales. To examine influences of temperature and precipitation on radial growth of Pinus pseudostrobus and Abies religiosa, this study combines measurements of radial growth patterns of forest trees in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) in central Mexico with temperature and precipitation variables from instrumental records. Dendrochronological samples were collected as cross sections and increment cores by using a chainsaw and increment borers, respectively. Total ring-width chronologies were developed for each site. Principal component analyses (PCA) were used to identify common temperature, precipitation and tree growth variation patterns. Correlation and response function analyses between chronologies and records of temperature and precipitation were used to evaluate the relation of climate variables on tree growth. The months during which tree growth was most strongly affected by precipitation were January, February and October from the previous year; only the temperature of September from the previous year affected the tree growth. In some chronologies, May’s average monthly maximum temperature was negatively correlated with tree growth. PCA and a comparison of PCA factor scores of climatic variables and chronologies showed no significant differences between northern, central or southern portions of the MBBR. Apparently, tree growth in the MBBR is reduced in years of low January–May precipitation combined with high summer (September of the previous year) temperatures, a scenario which is likely to occur as a consequence of global climate change.