Predicting species richness and distribution ranges of centipedes at the northern edge of Europe |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Geological-Paleontological Department, Natural History Museum Vienna, Burgring 7, AT-1010 Wien, Austria;2. University Museum of Bergen, PO Box 7800, NO-5020 Bergen, Norway;3. Natural History Museum of Crete, University of Crete, Knossos Avenue, GR-71409 Heraklion, Crete, Greece;1. Department of Ecology, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil;2. Laboratory of Genetics and Biodiversity, Institute of Biological Sciences, Federal University of Goias, Goiania, Goias, Brazil;1. Marine Scotland Science Freshwater Fisheries Laboratory, Faskally, Pitlochry, Perthshire PH16 5LB, Scotland, UK;2. Marine Scotland Science Marine Laboratory, PO Box 101, 375, Victoria Road, Aberdeen AB11 9DB, Scotland, UK;1. Agroécologie, AgroSup Dijon, INRA, Univ. Bourgogne Franche-Comté, F-21000, Dijon, France;2. ITRA/CRAL, BP 1163, Lomé, Togo;3. Ecologie Systématique Evolution, CNRS, Univ. Paris-Sud, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, 91400, Orsay, France;1. College of Agriculture and Forestry, Puer University, Puer, Yunnan Province, 665000, China;2. Rural Development Research Center, Puer University, Yunnan Province, 665000, China;3. College of Bioscience and Biotechnology, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, Liaoning Province, 110866, China;1. Departamento de Ciências Naturais, Herbário FURB, Universidade Regional de Blumenau – FURB, Rua Antônio da Veiga, 140, Bairro Victor Konder, 89012-900, Blumenau, SC, Brazil;2. Embrapa Florestas, Estrada da Ribeira, km 111, 83411-000, Colombo, PR, Brazil;3. Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia e Evolução, Laboratório de Ecologia Teórica e Síntese, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Campus Samambaia, Caixa Postal 131, 74690-900, Goiânia, GO, Brazil;4. Departamento de Engenharia Florestal, Universidade Regional de Blumenau – FURB, Rua São Paulo, 3250, 89030-000, Blumenau, SC, Brazil |
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| Abstract: | In recent decades, interest in understanding species distributions and exploring processes that shape species diversity has increased, leading to the development of advanced methods for the exploitation of occurrence data for analytical and ecological purposes. Here, with the use of georeferenced centipede data, we explore the importance and contribution of bioclimatic variables and land cover, and predict distribution ranges and potential hotspots in Norway. We used a maximum entropy analysis (Maxent) to model species' distributions, aiming at exploring centres of distribution, latitudinal spans and northern range boundaries of centipedes in Norway. The performance of all Maxent models was better than random with average test area under the curve (AUC) values above 0.893 and True Skill Statistic (TSS) values above 0.593. Our results showed a highly significant latitudinal gradient of increased species richness in southern grid-cells. Mean temperatures of warmest and coldest quarters explained much of the potential distribution of species. Predictive modelling analyses revealed that south-eastern Norway and the Atlantic coast in the west (inclusive of the major fjord system of Sognefjord), are local biodiversity hotspots with regard to high predictive species co-occurrence. We conclude that our predicted northward shifts of centipedes' distributions in Norway are likely a result of post-glacial recolonization patterns, species' ecological requirements and dispersal abilities. |
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| Keywords: | Distribution centres Maxent Latitudinal ranges Northern range boundaries Norway Species distribution models |
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