Predictors of early and late stroke following cardiac surgery

Background:

Much is known about the short-term risks of stroke following cardiac surgery. We examined the rate and predictors of long-term stroke in a cohort of patients who underwent cardiac surgery.

Methods:

We obtained linked data for patients who underwent cardiac surgery in the province of Ontario between 1996 and 2006. We analyzed the incidence of stroke and death up to 2 years postoperatively.

Results:

Of 108 711 patients, 1.8% (95% confidence interval CI] 1.7%–1.9%) had a stroke perioperatively, and 3.6% (95% CI 3.5%–3.7%) had a stroke within the ensuing 2 years. The strongest predictors of both early and late stroke were advanced age (≥ 65 year; adjusted hazard ratio HR] for all stroke 1.9, 95% CI 1.8–2.0), a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack (adjusted HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.9–2.3), peripheral vascular disease (adjusted HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.5–1.7), combined coronary bypass grafting and valve surgery (adjusted HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.5–1.8) and valve surgery alone (adjusted HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2–1.5). Preoperative need for dialysis (adjusted odds ratio OR] 2.1, 95% CI 1.6–2.8) and new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (adjusted OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.3–1.6) were predictors of only early stroke. A CHADS₂ score of 2 or higher was associated with an increased risk of stroke or death compared with a score of 0 or 1 (19.9% v. 9.3% among patients with a history of atrial fibrillation, 16.8% v. 7.8% among those with new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation and 14.8% v. 5.8% among those without this condition).

Interpretation:

Patients who had cardiac surgery were at highest risk of stroke in the early postoperative period and had continued risk over the ensuing 2 years, with similar risk factors over these periods. New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation was a predictor of only early stroke. The CHADS₂ score predicted stroke risk among patients with and without atrial fibrillation.Stroke remains a devastating complication following cardiac surgery, with substantial functional and economic impact.^1–3 Stroke research in cardiac surgery has focused on the immediate postoperative period;^4–9 however, most patients undergoing cardiac surgery have conditions such as hypertension, diabetes and atrial fibrillation, which place them at long-term risk of stroke.Early and late outcomes among patients undergoing cardiac surgery could be improved if the risk of postoperative stroke was defined and predictors of stroke identified. With this information, clinicians could optimize medical therapy for stroke risk factors such as hypertension,^10,11 improve the evidence-based use of oral anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation and evaluate intraoperative surgical strategies (e.g., removal of the left atrial appendage¹²) in patients whose clinical characteristics predict an increased risk of stroke. We examined the rate and predictors of long-term stroke within 2 years after cardiac surgery.