雪灾对草地畜牧业影响的评价模型及方法研究--以新疆阿勒泰地区为例

根据草地畜牧业的特点，建立了以草地、家畜、饲料储备和牧区人文经济为主体的四类三级雪灾评价指标体系。通过格栅获取法和模糊Borda数分析法，确定了指标体系各因素的权重，建立了雪灾对草地畜牧业影响的定量评价和雪灾损失计算模型。提出了以载畜量、受灾面积、积雪与牧草高度之比和气候为变量因子的不同等级雪灾损失指数模型。用模糊评价和德尔菲法相结合的方法，综合评价了雪灾对草地畜牧业的影响。结果表明：雪灾对草地畜牧业的有利影响度为0．481，不利影响度为6．8。以新疆阿勒泰地区为例，估算了该区2000年雪灾对草地畜牧业影响的综合评价值和损失率，取得了较好的效果。

Evaluating model and approach of snow disaster effect on grassland animal husbandry --A case study in Aletai Region of Xinjiang

A snow disaster evaluating system,with four classes and three grades under considering the major indices of grassland,animal,forage store and economy,is formulated according to the features of grassland animal husbandry.The weight of every factor in the evaluating indices system is determined through grid method and fuzzy Borda number analytical method.And the evaluation model and damage rate of snow disaster effect on grassland animal husbandry are set up.A damage model of different grade of snow disaster,considering factors of grassland area,grazing capacity,ratio of snow depth and grass height and days of continued low temperate is put forward.Snow disaster effect on grassland animal husbandry using the Delphi approach and in combination of fuzzy evaluating method is comprehensively estimated.Results showed that beneficial effect degree of snow disaster on grassland animal husbandry is 0.4821,and pernicious effect degree is 6.8.As a case study in Aletai Region of Xinjiang,the integrated evaluating value and damage rate of snow disaster on grassland animal husbandry are calculated in 2000,which obtains a better effect.