| Abstract: | We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the
state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed,
including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the
State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five
individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a
mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who
should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to
calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining,
vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and
the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions. |
