| Abstract: | It has been suggested that climatic variation has the effect on the dynamics of arid and semi-arid grazing systems of reducing animal numbers below the level at which they have much impact on vegetation or soils, and that spatial heterogeneity in resource availability serves to buffer herbivores against climatic variation. Modelling was used to test these hypotheses and to examine the interacting effects of temporal and spatial variability in plant production on animal population dynamics and defoliation intensity. The model distinguishes areas of the range that are accessible during wet and dry seasons, and examines the effect of seasonal restrictions in foraging area. It was established that the animal population is in long-term equilibrium with dry-season resources, on which it depends for survival; that dry season resource areas and outlying areas thus operate in a source-sink manner; and that the ratio of these areas determines the strength of consumer-resource coupling outside the dry-season range. A high ratio of dry season to wet season resources may support a sufficiently large animal population to impose non-trivial defoliation impacts on the outlying range. Increasing degrees of variability in primary production on areas used by animals for surviving the dry season increased the annual variation in animal abundance and reduced the mean. By comparison with a stable environment, for which the model predicts virtually stable animal numbers and constant, low defoliation intensity, variation in annual rainfall causes wide fluctuations in animal numbers and defoliation intensity. Under climatic variation, animal numbers can build up enough to impose much higher defoliation intensities than under a constant regime. Periodic intense defoliation is a consequence of climatic variability which is likely to make these environments more, not less, prone to ecological change. |
