Phylogenetic prediction of the maximum per capita rate of population growth |
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Authors: | William F. Fagan Yanthe E. Pearson Elise A. Larsen Heather J. Lynch Jessica B. Turner Hilary Staver Andrew E. Noble Sharon Bewick Emma E. Goldberg |
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Affiliation: | 1.Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA;2.Department of Ecology and Evolution, SUNY Stony Brook, 650 Life Sciences Building, Stony Brook, NY 11794-5245, USA;3.Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA;4.Department of Biological Sciences, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL 60607, USA |
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Abstract: | The maximum per capita rate of population growth, r, is a central measure of population biology. However, researchers can only directly calculate r when adequate time series, life tables and similar datasets are available. We instead view r as an evolvable, synthetic life-history trait and use comparative phylogenetic approaches to predict r for poorly known species. Combining molecular phylogenies, life-history trait data and stochastic macroevolutionary models, we predicted r for mammals of the Caniformia and Cervidae. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that, even with sparse life-history data, comparative methods estimated r well and outperformed models based on body mass. Values of r predicted via comparative methods were in strong rank agreement with observed values and reduced mean prediction errors by approximately 68 per cent compared with two null models. We demonstrate the utility of our method by estimating r for 102 extant species in these mammal groups with unknown life-history traits. |
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Keywords: | Caniformia intrinsic rate of natural increase macroevolutionary model mammal life history population doubling time species conservation |
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