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Optimal harvesting of stochastically fluctuating populations
Authors:Luis H R Alvarez  Larry A Shepp
Institution:(1) Institute of Applied Mathematics, University of Turku, FIN-20014 Turku, Finland, FI;(2) Columbia University and AT&T Labs, Room 2c-374, 600 Mountain Avenue, Murray Hill, NJ 07974, USA, US
Abstract: We obtain the optimal harvesting plan to maximize the expected discounted number of individuals harvested over an infinite future horizon, under the most common (Verhulst-Pearl) logistic model for a stochastically fluctuating population. We also solve the problem for the standard variants of the model where there are constraints on the admissible harvesting rates. We use stochastic calculus to derive the optimal population threshold at which individuals are harvested as well as the overall value of the population in the sense of the model. We show that except under extreme conditions, the population is never depleted in finite time, but remains in a stationary distribution which we find explicitly. Needless to say, our results prove that any strategy which totally depletes the population is sub-optimal. These results are much more precise than those previously obtained for this problem. Received 24 June 1996; received in revised form 7 April 1997
Keywords::   Optimal harvesting  Stochastic logistic model  Threshold population density  Value of the opportunity to harvest  It?’  s theorem  
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