Epidemiology and prediction of brown leaf rust of mulberry caused by Peridiopsora mori

Brown leaf rust (BLR) caused by Peridiopsora mori is one of the major foliar diseases of mulberry (Morus sp.) in the subtropical hills of eastern India. The disease appeared in first week of August and continued up to September with maximum severity in second and third week of September. The disease symptoms appeared at atmospheric temperature (27.00–20.07°C), relative humidity (92.14–82.43%), rainfall (11.20 cm) and rainy days (7) of the preceding week. Disease severity (>50 PDI) was observed at temperature (26.29–19.29°C), relative humidity (94.14–80.14%), rainfall (4.12 cm) and number of rainy days (2–3 days). Apparent rate of infection was found high at temperature (27.00–19.83°C), relative humidity (94.67–85.00%), rainfall (4.6 cm) and rainy days (2) of the preceding week. The correlation coefficient between disease severity and average meteorological factors of the preceding 7 days revealed that BLR disease severity showed significant negative correlation with minimum temperature. It was also revealed that contribution of maximum and minimum temperature 42.23% and 35.21%, maximum and minimum relative humidity (RH) 11.23% and 10.69% and rainfall and number of rainy days 0.11% and 0.50%, respectively towards development of BLR disease severity. Multiple regression analysis revealed that average of maximum and minimum temperatures and minimum RH of preceding 7 days were found to maximally influence BLR disease severity.