Prediction of citrus canker epidemics generated through different inoculation methods

Citrus canker epidemics were generated with 10^8?cfu/ml of Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. citri (ex Hasse) on Citrus limonia cv. China lemon, Citrus reticulate cv. kinnow, Citrus jambhiri, Citrus reticulate cv. Feutral’s early and Citrus limettioides using four inoculation techniques. Natural inoculum was also relied upon for infection. Overall, the injection infiltration method led to maximum disease generation followed by spray, pinprick and smear inoculation methods. Citrus canker incidence along with environmental data were recorded and subjected to stepwise regression analysis. Except relative humidity, the relationship of weekly air temperature (maximum and minimum), rainfall and wind speed with citrus canker disease development in all citrus cultivars was positively correlated and best explained by linear regression. Overall, two environmental variable model containing maximum and minimum air temperature fit the data well explaining 93% variability in disease development. The observed citrus canker incidence values and those predicted by the model were close in most of citrus cultivars. This two environmental variable model can be used to issue advance warning forecasts for the timely management of the citrus canker in Pakistan.