On the unreliability of judgments of certain social situations by minority groups

In certain situations like the aftermath of a revolution when discontent rises amongst certain groups of the population, it is frequently observed that the discontented groups are firmly convinced that their point of view is shared by the majority of the population. Yet future events prove that this is far from being the case. This effect is partly attributable to “wishful thinking,” partly to a purely social mechanism. The wishful-thinking effect may be considered as a case of psycho-physical discrimination in which a bias is introduced proportional to the degree of satisfaction anticipated from a given situation. H. D. Landahl's well-known equations can be applied to this case. The social factor is based on the circumstance that an individual associates by preference with such other individuals as have similar opinions. This results in an actual error of estimation of the relative minority or majority because of different frequencies of contact with individuals of the two opposing groups. Both factors may be combined into one equation.