A Perplexing Outbreak of Mice in Patagonia,Argentina

Early in spring, 1997, remarkably large numbers of mice appeared in the dense forests near the western end of Lago Nahuel Huapi, Argentina. Dead mice that washed up on nearby beaches at this time were fat, had full stomachs and were young or young-adults born unusually late in the preceding autumn and winter. These mice represented an aperiodic outbreak that extended over 300 km along the Andes. By analysis of trapped samples, the demographics of the two main species in this outbreak (Oligoryzomys longicaudatus and Abrothrix longipilis) were compared with demographics of the same species during the preceding 21 years. In spring of 1997, trap success for O. longicaudatus in areas of the outbreak was as high as 46%; for A. longipilis it was 22%. Neither males nor females of either species entered breeding condition in 1997 during the usual season of reproduction in spring, nor in the following summer, leading to the collapse of the populations. Numbers of Oligoryzomys decreased steadily to 15% in autumn and a normal 2% in the following spring, at which time reproduction resumed. The 1997 springtime populations in adjacent ecotone and steppe habitats to the east had not increased, contained no young individuals, and overwinter individuals reproduced normally. During the breeding season, O. longicaudatus in these populations increased more rapidly than did A. longipilis, and during the winter, they decreased faster. The unusual winter reproduction preceding the outbreak may have resulted from an increase in some deep-forest food source that in turn was responding to two successive, unusually warm winters. Predation played a negligible role in the population collapse. The mouse outbreak was not accompanied by an increase in human cases of hanta pulmonary syndrome, a disease for which O. longicaudatus is a reservoir.