森林种群径阶转移模型中转移概率的估算方法

基于统计分析理论和微分方程理论，给出了森林种群径阶转移模型中估算转移概率的方法：第一种是在有两次样地观测数据，不考虑林分环境因子等因素的条件下估算转移概率；第二种是在已知林分环境因子条件下，不需要对样地有两次观测数据来估算转移概率．实例验证结果表明，两种估算转移概率的方法具有计算简单和实用性强的特点，对森林经营与管理有一定的理论指导和实际应用价值．

Estimation of transition probability in diameter grade transition model of forest population

Based on the theories of statistical analysis and differential equation, two methods were given for estimating the transition probability in the diameter grade transition model of forest population. The first method was used for the estimation when two groups of observation data were given and it was no necessary to consider the environmental factors of forest stand, while the second one was used for that when the environmental factors were known and there was no need of the observation data. The results of case studies showed that both of the two methods had the characteristics of easy operation and high practicability, and the importance of theoretical guidance and practical application in forest management.