Population growth and structure in a variable environment

When a population experiences temporal changes in the vital rates due to environmental or biotic variation, change is not only expected in the rate of population growth but also in the structure of the population. In this study we present a method for transforming observed patterns (notably how vital rates change with temperature) into functions that can be used in population growth models and analysis of population structure. The method is exemplified by applying it to cohort studies in different constant temperatures of four species of aphids, Lipaphis erysimi (K.), Metopolophium dirhodum (Wlk.), Rhopaliosiphum padi and Macrosiphum avenae (F.). We use piece-wise linear functions to transform the vital rates of the cohort studies. The lifespans are divided into phases, each phase having linear rates. A projection matrix is formulated, where the elements are temperature dependent fecundities, survivorships and developmental rates. The major result is, contrary to what theory predicts as reasonable (Caswell 1989), that population structure of these aphid species will become almost fixed although the temperature varies. This result is consistent with findings of earlier field studies (Wiktelius 1982). A fixed population structure implies that it is possible to calculate the population growth rate on the basis of intrinsic rates of increase. By simulating different temperature regimes we also show that initial oscillations in the population structure dampen out after a few days. After initial oscillations, calculations of population growth using intrinsic rates of increase are consistent with calculations made by a matrix model.