Evaluating an icon of population persistence: the Devil's Hole pupfish

The Devil''s Hole pupfish Cyprinodon diabolis has iconic status among conservation biologists because it is one of the World''s most vulnerable species. Furthermore, C. diabolis is the most widely cited example of a persistent, small, isolated vertebrate population; a chronic exception to the rule that small populations do not persist long in isolation. It is widely asserted that this species has persisted in small numbers (less than 400 adults) for 10 000–20 000 years, but this assertion has never been evaluated. Here, we analyse the time series of count data for this species, and we estimate time to coalescence from microsatellite data to evaluate this hypothesis. We conclude that mean time to extinction is approximately 360–2900 years (median 410–1800), with less than a 2.1% probability of persisting 10 000 years. Median times to coalescence varied from 217 to 2530 years, but all five approximations had wide credible intervals. Our analyses suggest that Devil''s Hole pupfish colonized this pool well after the Pleistocene Lakes receded, probably within the last few hundred to few thousand years; this could have occurred through human intervention.