Tree regeneration and future dynamics of the laurel forest on Tenerife,Canary Islands

Abstract. We studied two sites in the laurel forest of Tenerife to predict future changes in canopy composition. We used two projection methods: Horn's ‘Markovian Projection’, which utilizes information on juveniles in the vicinity of canopy trees, and a 'Stand Projection’, which ignores such information. We performed these projections both including and excluding a-sexual regeneration. Although all of our projections predict a change in species composition, inclusion of a-sexual reproduction decreased the magnitude of successional change. The persistence of Prunus lusitanica and Ilex canariensis appears to be highly dependent on a-sexual regeneration. Both the Markov- and stand projections predict a slight convergence in species composition between the two sites when only sexual regeneration is considered, and also a higher dominance of the shade-tolerant species Laurus azorica. When a-sexual regeneration is also considered, some divergence is shown, with less projected change in the stand projection than in the Markov projection. In spite of some differences between the models, general patterns such as an increase of shade-tolerant species (Laurus azorica and Prunus lusitanica) and a decrease of shade-intolerant species (Erica arborea, Erica scoparia and Myrica faya) are consistent.