城市群空气污染综合评估范式与应用——以京津冀城市群PM2.5污染为例

城市群已成为中国城市发展的主要形式,城市化发展引发的一系列环境污染问题成为目前的研究重点之一,尤其是近年来明显的空气污染问题。由于传统的针对某一城市地区进行细致研究,难以解决在城市聚集的城市群下形成的区域性空气污染来源和影响机制等问题,使区域性空气污染造成的负面效应难以评估。通过构建综合评估模型范式,并运用空间分析,对京津冀168个区县2000年,2005年,2010年,2015年PM_2.5人口暴露风险、人类活动对PM_2.5的贡献、以及5种土地利用类型的"源汇"特征进行了实证研究。结果发现：（1）2000-2015年,京津冀城市群的人口暴露风险、空气污染分布、综合评估结果总体呈现北低南高的现象。（2）2000-2015年,各县域的人口暴露风险和空气污染的程度、范围呈上升趋势。不同的土地利用类型具有不同的源汇特征,且对污染的贡献不同。本研究通过综合评估模型范式对城市群或区域城市发展与空气质量的权衡关系模式开展量化解析,为城市的可持续发展提供了科学的范式和初步的实证示范。

Comprehensive evaluation model for air pollution and its application: an example of PM2.5 pollution in city cluster of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province

The development of urbanization leads to the continuous expansion of city scale. Than formal city clusters which have become a major form of urban development in China with heavy fine particle PM_2.5 pollution. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is one of the most polluted city clusters in China. PM_2.5 is identified as the major air pollutant in recent year. It not only affects the development of natural economy and society, but also affects the human respiratory system, cardiovascular system and central nervous system. The research of air pollution on regional scale is more complicated. However, the comprehensive impact between urban development and PM_2.5 changes have not been well examined. It is difficult to assess the negative effects of air pollution, regional air pollution sources and impact mechanisms. Therefore, this research uses spatial analysis by constructing an evaluation model. We study residents'' exposure risk, contribution of human activities to PM_2.5 and source and sink features of five land-use types in 168 counties in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. Meanwhile, we analyzed their variation and the corresponding weights were given for comprehensive evaluation. The results showed that: 1) both the risk and air pollution distribution increased rapidly from 2000 to 2014, especially in North and South Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The comprehensive impact continued to rise, especially in Central and South Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. 2) The region and role of "source and sink" are constantly changing. Therefore, different land types have different source and sink characteristics, which have different contributions to environmental issues. Air quality research should be carried out simultaneously with the development of urbanization, and coordinated with the development of urbanization. This research has established a related evaluation system. We want to carry out quantitative research between urban development and air pollution to provide scientific support for the sustainable development of cities. We hope the results in this work could serve as an example to the internal changes of air pollution and ecological pattern.