上海轨道交通对城市土地利用变化的影响

利用1989、2005年上海市1∶50 000彩红外航空遥感影像解译的土地利用数据，基于GIS技术，定量研究了上海轨道交通对城市土地利用动态变化的影响，并用Markov模型对研究区2010—2025年间的土地利用变化进行了初步预测.结果表明：轨道交通加快了上海市土地利用的转化，促进了以耕地为主的自然景观向居住、公共设施用地等土地获益较高的人工景观转化；轨道交通增加了研究区的土地利用程度；1989—2005年，研究区其他用地（以在建用地为主，下同）、公共设施用地、绿地、耕地、水域的转化率较大，其中，其他用地的变化速度最快，水域的变化速度最慢；2010—2025年，耕地、水域的面积和比例将继续减少，居住、公共设施用地等人工景观的面积则呈继续增加的趋势.从提高土地利用程度和土地获益的角度，轨道交通沿线的这种土地利用结构仍需要进一步调整，以增加土地的集约化程度和实现土地资源的可持续利用.

Impacts of rail transit in Shanghai on its urban land use change.

By using the land use data interpreted with 1:50,000 color-infrared aerial photos of Shanghai collected in 1989 and 2005, and based on Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, the impacts of urban rail transit (URT) development in Shanghai on its urban land use change was quantitatively analyzed, and a preliminary prediction of the land use change from 2010 to 2025 was made with Markov probability models. The results showed that the URT accelerated the land use change, particularly from an agricultural dominated natural landscape in 1989 to a high-value man-made urban landscape primarily composed of residence and public facilities. URT increased the land use rate in the study area. From 1989 to 2005, public facility land, green space, agriculture land, land for other uses (primarily used for construction), and water area changed greatly, with the greatest change rate of the land for other uses and the lowest one of water area. From 2010 to 2025, the areas and proportions of agriculture land and water area would keep on decreasing, while those of man-made landscapes including residence and public facilities would increase continuously. From the viewpoints of increasing land use rate and its gain, the present land use structure along Shanghai URT should be further regulated to improve the intensive and sustainable use of land resources.