Estimating Selection Intensity on Synonymous Codon Usage in a Nonequilibrium Population

Codon usage bias is the nonrandom use of synonymous codons for the same amino acid. Most population genetic models of codon usage evolution assume that the population is at mutation–selection–drift equilibrium. Natural populations, however, frequently deviate from equilibrium, often because of recent demographic changes. Here, we construct a matrix model that includes the effects of a recent change in population size on estimates of selection on preferred vs. unpreferred codons. Our results suggest that patterns of synonymous polymorphisms affecting codon usage can be quite erratic after such a change; statistical methods that fail to take demographic effects into account can then give incorrect estimates of important parameters. We propose a new method that can accurately estimate both demographic and codon usage parameters. The method also provides a simple way of testing for the effects of covariates such as gene length and level of gene expression on the intensity of selection, which we apply to a large Drosophila melanogaster polymorphism data set. Our analyses of twofold degenerate codons reveal that (i) selection acts in favor of preferred codons, (ii) there is mutational bias in favor of unpreferred codons, (iii) shorter genes and genes with higher expression levels are under stronger selection, and (iv) there is little evidence for a recent change in population size in the Zimbabwe population of D. melanogaster.CODONS specifying the same amino acid are called synonymous codons. These are often used nonrandomly, with some codons appearing more frequently than others. This biased usage of synonymous codons has been found in many organisms such as Drosophila, yeast, and bacteria (Ikemura 1985; Duret and Mouchiroud 1999; Hershberg and Petrov 2008). Conventionally, synonymous codons for a given amino acid are divided into two classes: preferred and unpreferred codons (Ikemura 1985; Akashi 1994; Duret and Mouchiroud 1999). Several observations indicate that codon usage is affected by natural selection. First, in species with codon usage bias, preferred codons generally correspond to the most abundant tRNA species (Ikemura 1981). Second, highly expressed genes usually have higher codon usage bias than genes with low expression (Sharp and Li 1986; Duret and Mouchiroud 1999; Hey and Kliman 2002). Third, the synonymous substitution rate of a gene has been shown to be negatively correlated with its degree of codon usage bias (Sharp and Li 1986; Bierne and Eyre-Walker 2006). The most commonly cited explanations of the apparent fitness differences between preferred and unpreferred codons are selection for translation efficiency, translational accuracy, and mRNA stability (Ikemura 1985; Eyre-Walker and Bulmer 1993; Akashi 1994; Drummond et al. 2005). Recently, it has been proposed that exon splicing also affects codon usage bias (Warnecke and Hurst 2007).From a population genetics perspective, the extent of codon usage bias is ultimately a product of the joint effects of mutation, selection, genetic drift, recombination, and demographic history. The Li–Bulmer model of drift, selection, and reversible mutation between preferred and unpreferred codons at a site is the most widely used model (Li 1987; Bulmer 1991; McVean and Charlesworth 1999). Applications of this model generally assume that the population is at mutation–selection–drift equilibrium. However, empirical studies have suggested that changes in the strengths of various driving forces may not be unusual. For example, in Drosophila melanogaster, there is evidence that the population size (Li and Stephan 2006; Thornton and Andolfatto 2006; Keightley and Eyre-Walker 2007; Stephan and Li 2007), recombinational landscape (Takano-Shimizu 1999), and mutational process (Takano-Shimizu 2001; Kern and Begun 2005) may have changed significantly over the species'' evolutionary history.Such changes cause departures from equilibrium. Theoretical models show that it takes a very long time, proportional to the reciprocal of the mutation rate, for the population to approach a new equilibrium state (Tachida 2000; Comeron and Kreitman 2002). Before reaching equilibrium, the population often shows counterintuitive patterns of evolution (Eyre-Walker 1997; Takano-Shimizu 1999, 2001; Comeron and Kreitman 2002; Comeron and Guthrie 2005; Charlesworth and Eyre-Walker 2007). Despite these theoretical results, details of the patterns of polymorphism and substitution rates following a recent change in population size, and their effects on estimates of strength of selection, have not been determined.The above findings point to the importance of incorporating nonequilibrium factors into the study of codon usage bias. To this end, we extend the Li–Bulmer model to allow population size to vary over time, by representing the evolutionary process by a transition matrix. By analyzing this matrix model, we show that a recent change in population size can result in erratic patterns of codon usage and that methods failing to take into account these demographic effects can give false estimates of the intensity of selection.To solve these problems, we propose a new method, which does not require polarizing ancestral vs. derived states using outgroup data (cf. Cutter and Charlesworth 2006), but requires only knowledge of preferred vs. unpreferred states defined by patterns of codon usage. We use information on both polymorphic and fixed sites, which enables both mutational bias and the strength of selection to be estimated, in contrast to previous methods that use information on polymorphisms alone. Simulations indicate that this method can accurately estimate both demographic and codon usage parameters and can distinguish between selection and demography. We use the new method to analyze a large D. melanogaster polymorphism data set (Shapiro et al. 2007) and find evidence for natural selection on synonymous codons. We use our approach to show that genes with shorter coding sequences and higher levels of expression are under significantly stronger selection than longer genes with lower expression.