基于生态安全格局理论的国土空间生态修复分区模拟——以粤港澳大湾区为例

国土空间生态修复分区有助于推动生态修复工作的整体性和系统性。利用国土空间生态安全格局理论进行生态修复分区是一种较为经典的模式,但现有分区技术方案对高强度人类活动导致的土地利用景观变化考虑不足,不能很好的适应城市群尺度国土空间生态安全格局的塑造需求。设计了一种基于情景模拟的国土空间生态修复分区方案,该框架首先通过耦合空间马尔科夫链与元胞自动机模型模拟城镇化发展末期的土地利用景观格局;然后利用"生态源地-生态廊道-生态网络"理论构建国土空间生态安全格局基本骨架;最后根据最小累积阻力模型划分出生态修复关键区、调节区和双修区等类型。粤港澳大湾区案例研究表明：（1）土地利用景观变化对生态修复分区方案影响较大,不同景观格局导致的分区规模差异可达国土空间的10%左右;（2）国土空间生态修复分区需要充分考虑高强度人类活动对景观格局变化的潜在影响,进而使得生态修复分区政策更有利于国土空间生态安全格局塑造目标的实现。研究构建的国土空间生态修复分区技术方案可进一步深化生态安全格局理论在国土空间规划应用上的认知。

Ecological restoration zoning of territorial space based on the pattern simulation of eco-security scenario: A case study of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Ecological restoration zoning of territorial space could help to promote the integrity and systematicity of ecological restoration work. Using ecological security pattern theory to carry out ecological restoration zoning is a classically technical model, but the existing zoning schemes do not consider the landscape changes of land use caused by high-intensity human activities, which is not conducive to shaping the territorially ecological security pattern at the urban agglomeration scale. To this end, this paper designs a zoning scheme for ecological restoration of territorial space based on scenario simulation, and takes Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area as an example for verification. The framework firstly simulates the land use landscape pattern at the end of urbanization by coupling the spatial Markov chain and the cellular automaton model; then uses the "ecological source-ecological corridor-ecological network" theory to construct the basic framework of territorially ecological security pattern. Finally, the minimum cumulative resistance model of ecological process was used to identify the key areas of ecological restoration, ecological regulation and double repair. The research shows that:(1) patterns of land use change has a greater impact on the scheme of ecological restoration zoning, and the difference in the size of the zoning area caused by different landscape patterns can be up to about 10% of the territorial space. (2) The potential impact on the pattern change due to the human activities should be well considered for the ecological restoration zoning, which in turn makes the ecological restoration policy more conducive to regulating the ecological security pattern of territorial space. The technical framework planned for ecological restoration of territorial space in this research can further promote the ecological security theory in the application of territorially spatial planning.