基于InVEST模型的疏勒河流域碳储量时空变化研究

研究区域土地利用方式与生态系统服务碳储量的关系,对于区域生态系统保护及经济社会可持续发展具有重要意义。利用InVEST模型碳储量模块和CA-Markov模型,探究并预测疏勒河流域1990-2015及2015-2040年流域生态系统碳储量时空变化特征及其与土地利用方式之间的关系。结果表明：疏勒河流域1990、1995、2000、2005、2010、2015年碳储量分别为7.994×10⁸、7.996×10⁸、7.998×10⁸、8.038×10⁸、8.064×10⁸、8.071×10⁸t,呈逐年增加趋势,累计增加7.7×10⁶t。土地利用类型变化是导致生态系统碳储量变化的主要因素,未利用地向耕地和草地转化有利于碳储量增加,而草地向耕地和未利用地的转化则导致碳储量减少。疏勒河流域碳储量存在显著的空间格局,碳储量较高区域呈现"北部点状-中部带状-南部点状片状"特征,这种分布格局与流域土地利用类型紧密联系。预测表明至2040年疏勒河流域碳储量为9.128×10⁸t,较2015年增加13.1%,主要原因是草地、耕地和林地面积较大幅度增长,提高了流域内的碳储量。

Temporal and spatial variation of carbon storage in the Shule River Basin based on InVEST model

The relationship between land use pattern and ecosystem services carbon storage is of great significance for regional ecosystem protection and sustainable economic and social development. This paper uses carbon storage module of InVEST model and CA-Markov model to explore and predict the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the carbon storage of the basin ecosystems in the Shule River Basin from 1990 to 2015 and 2015-2040 and their relationships with land use patterns. The results show that the ecosystem carbon storage in the Shule River Basin in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 were 7.994×10⁸t, 7.996×10⁸t, 7.998×10⁸t, 8.038×10⁸t, 8.064×10⁸t and 8.071×10⁸t, respectively. The system''s carbon storage was increasing year by year, with a cumulative increase of 7.7×10⁶t and an average annual increase of 0.038%. Changes in land use types are the main factors leading to changes in ecosystem carbon storage. The conversion of unused land to cultivated land and grassland is advantageous to the increased carbon storage, while the conversion of grassland to cultivated land and unused land leads to a reduction in carbon stocks. There is a significantly spatial pattern of carbon storage in the ecosystem of the Shule River Basin. The areas with high carbon storage present the characteristics of "northern dot-central band-southern dot and plate", which is closely related to the land use type of the basin. The forecast indicates that the carbon storage in the Shule River Basin will be 9.128×10⁸ t by 2040, an increase of 13.1% compared with 2015. The main reason is that the area of grassland, the cultivated land, and forest land has increased significantly, and the carbon storage in the basin has been increased.