Adapting a patch model to simulate the sensitivity of Central-Canadian boreal ecosystems to climate variability

Aim To investigate effects of within-season and interannual climate variability on the behaviour of boreal forest ecosystems as simulated by the FORSKA2 patch model. Location Eleven climate station locations distributed along a transect across the boreal zone of central Canada. Methods FORSKA2′s water balance submodel was modified to enable it to behave more realistically under a varying climate. Long-term actual monthly time-series of temperature and precipitation data were detrended and used to drive the modified model. Long-term monthly averages of the same detrended data were used to drive the unmodified model. Results Modifications created significant improvements when simulating species composition at sites in boreal Canada. Simulated forest biomass values were slightly higher than those obtained from the unmodified model using averaged climate records, but resembled the observed distribution of vegetation more closely. Main conclusions Modified FORSKA2 suggests that boreal forest composition and distribution may be more sensitive to changes in monthly rainfall data than to changes in temperature. Climate variability affects seasonal water balances and should be considered when using patch models to forecast vegetation dynamics during and following a period of climate transition. The modified model provided improved representation of the latitudinal trend in spatially averaged biomass density in this region.