气候变暖情境下松材线虫在我国的适生区范围

基于历史气象数据(1971—2000),利用CLIMEX软件对松材线虫Bursaphelenchus xylophilus在我国的潜在适生区进行了预测,结果显示:松材线虫在我国的适生范围广、适生程度高,全国除黑龙江、吉林省无适生区外,其余各省市区均有适生区域,其中约2/3的适生区为高度适生区,覆盖整个南方地区,分布北界达内蒙古通辽地区,西至西藏的日喀则地区;进一步结合英国气候变化研究中心提供的气候变暖情境下未来气候模拟数据TYNSC2.0,利用CLIMEX软件预测出未来30年内(2010-2039)松材线虫在我国的潜在适生区,结果发现同历史气候条件下相比,未来30年内松材线虫在我国的适生分布区将呈现范围增加、适生程度增加、向北扩散的趋势,其中分布北界将到达吉林省西部,分布西界则与历史气候条件下预测结果相差无几。

The predicted geographical distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in China under climate warming

The potential geographical distribution of the pest nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in China was predicted by CLIMEX using a historical climate dataset （1971—2000）. The results suggest that B. xylophilus has a wide range of suitable habitat in China. All provinces except Heilongjiang and Jilin have suitable habitat for this pest and about 2/3 of this is highly suitable. The nematode’s northern limit of distribution is predicted to reach the Tongliao region of Inner Mongolia and its western boundary is predicted to be the Rikaze region of Tibet. The potential geographical distribution of B. xylophilus during the next 30 years （2010-2039） under a global warming scenario was also predicted by CLIMEX based on the simulated climate dataset TYN SC 2.0 provided by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change. The predicted future geographical range of B. xylophilus under this scenario is larger than that estimated from the historical climate data, with the predicted northern limit of distribution reaching the western parts of Jilin. The western limit of distribution may, however, remain unchanged.