A prediction model for parasitic gastro-enteritis in lambs

Paton G., Thomas R. J. and Waller P. J. 1984. A prediction model for parasitic gastroenteritis in lambs. International Journal for Parasitology14: 439–445. The parasite Ostertagia circumcincta is a major cause of parasitic gastro-enteritis in lambs in temperate countries. A prediction model is described, based on a mathematical representation of the external and internal stages of the life-cycle.The model is used to predict the numbers of infective larvae on a permanent experimental paddock grazed by ewes and lambs in 1973 and 1974. The “moisture status” of the surface layer of the pasture was found to be of fundamental importance for the successful prediction of the development and survival of the pre-infective larval stages. For the years studied the contribution to the summer wave of infection by lamb derived larvae was particularly significant.